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The summit coincides with a tricky investment landscape - will equities remain the go-to sector as the sugar-rush of President Donald Trump’s $1.5 trillion stimulus starts to wear off? Will European growth and profits buck up? Tech - this year’s “most crowded” trade - shows signs of exhaustion. As for China? Anyone’s guess. Watch this space. Dearth of equity keeps stock market bull alive. How bears are taking over world stock markets. GRAPHIC: Global asset market performance - tmsnrt.rs/2QvXlNE.
It’s become pretty much evident, stateside, that the script has been torn up on all things White House-related, Midterm elections, at least, delivered the expected outcome - and despite President Trump’s proclivity to credit Republican policies for the equity boom, platinum cufflinks investors seem to have cheered Democrats’ winning the “House”, A sign maybe that more stimulus is not necessarily what markets want for an economy growing at 3.5 percent - above the 2 percent rate considered its trend level..
Unsurprisingly, the Fed is keeping a steady course for a December rate rise. Another two moves are likely next year. But could that become three? Data on Wednesday may show. October inflation is expected at 2.4 percent (2.3 percent in September) but labor markets are tightening - average hourly wage inflation of 3.1 percent is the highest since 2009; some sectors report 5-10 percent wage growth. The Fed question brings up the other issue - what does Trump do next? Deprived of a midterm win, starting his re-election bid and irked by the dollar’s rise, he might ramp up his attacks on Fed policy. Also, expect rhetoric on migration. And of course on trade where China can safely expect to be in line for more flak.
Fed holds interest rates steady, says economy remains on track U.S, inflation slows in September, weekly jobless claims increase, Loss of U.S, House leaves Republicans more tied to Trump than ever, GRAPHIC: U.S, Consumer Price Index and Wage Inflation - tmsnrt.rs/2Qqdh3X, Speaking of China, Trump’s trade tantrums and Beijing’s own credit clampdown are clearly cooling growth platinum cufflinks there, Probably more than Chinese authorities had expected, Factory inflation slowed in October for the fourth month and the car market, the world’s largest, may be heading for an annual contraction, its first since at least 1990, Beijing therefore looks certain to unveil some stimulus, weakening the yuan further - and provoking even more ire from Trump..
Retail sales and industrial data ahead may show if existing measures have had any impact. However, each bout of weak data raises more stimulus exceptions, keeping the pressure on the yuan - the currency just had its worst week since July and is down 6.5 percent year-to-date. Beijing will be hoping to plot some kind of middle course to take pressure off President Xi Jinping when he comes face-to-face with Trump at a G20 summit later in November. China car market on verge of rare annual contraction.
Democrat-led House seen backing Trump’s China trade war, GRAPHIC: Chinese GDP contributions - tmsnrt.rs/2Pj4DHZ, Italy has until Tuesday to submit a new draft budget to Brussels, EU rules require it to revise its 2019 structural deficit, so that it falls by 0.6 percent of GDP versus this year, rather than rise by 0.8 percent as planned now, But the coalition in Rome, having won power on back of some generous election promises, is digging in its heels, Expectations of a collision with the EU is stressing its bond and stock markets, with Italy’s 10-year bond platinum cufflinks yield premium over Germany staying stubbornly near the 300 basis-point mark that indicates financial strain..
But there’s another layer of worry for markets - signs of tension within the coalition itself. A recent confidence vote in the government passed easily, but differences on policy are raising the prospect of fresh elections. So far, markets and politicians have taken heart from S&P’s recent decision not to downgrade Italy’s credit rating. Talk of a fresh round of cheap ECB bank loans has helped too. Both factors have helped the Italy-Germany yield gap to hold below 300 bps. The question now is how long can that last in the face of the budget standoff?.
Italy dismisses “implausible” EU forecasts, says budget is platinum cufflinks sound, IMF warns Italy should cut deficit, debt while growth still above potential, Italy’s coalition reaches deal over statute of limitations - lawmaker, Italy government wins confidence vote amid coalition tensions, GRAPHIC: Italy's 10-year bond yield gap with Germany - tmsnrt.rs/2QACngM, Brexit is nearing and the pound is getting twitchy, A mere 'thumbs up' flashed by Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab at a BBC reporter after a cabinet meeting on Tuesday was enough to send sterling to that day's high of nearly $1.31 GBP=D3..