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“The report was solid even though the headline did miss, the unemployment rate fell for the right reasons, the wages number was strong. What was odd was the rate market reaction to this. The entire selloff this week has not been fundamental in nature. There’s a technical component to it, some big asset allocation that seems to be going on, not driven by the fact the Fed is hiking faster or that the economy is overheating. “It’s hard to tell who is driving the selling. I would not have expected a bear steepener reaction on the report.
“It seems a lot like the price reaction earlier this week, as it is being driven by Treasuries, not swaps, it’s met with a steeper curve, and it’s real-rate driven.”, JOSEPH LAVORGNA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, AMERICAS, NATIXIS, NEW YORK, “I’m a little surprised that the bond market has reacted the way it has because my sense is that expectations of a much stronger number were built in, Now, net of revision numbers were good, if not a themed cufflinks little bit better, but my sense is the market was pricing for a number closer to 300 than what we got net of revisions..
“So a little surprised at this point to the Treasury reaction. I still see very little evidence of real significant wage pressure. We had the earnings up, they were up 2.8 percent, which is a little bit less than where they’d been running with the revision, and that’s in the face of 3.7 percent unemployment rate. “I’m using a bit of an old term, but to me it’s Goldilocks right now. You have very good GDP growth, somewhere perhaps 4 percent, maybe better, but a good solid number, and the economy is performing extraordinarily well, at least relative to recent history. It’s not the boom of the late ‘90s, but it’s doing pretty well.”.
MICHAEL ARONE, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS IN BOSTON, “This is kind of a blame it on the weather jobs report, a lot of folks are chalking up the miss on the top line as a result of Hurricane Florence and some of the weather that occurred during the month, If you look at the underlying revisions were quite strong and the trend continues to be pretty good, The futures initially rallied as it was kind of viewed as a goldilocks, but it is interesting yields kind of looked at it and said no this is still going to be a solid report, a strong report and 10-year yields continued to increase and now futures are themed cufflinks off, At first blush, folks are saying this is a miss and now looking under the surface it is showing up as still a pretty solid report that is likely to keep interest rates continuing to move a bit higher..
“Overall, this is a very good report. You completely dismiss the weak September payrolls number and look at the gigantic revisions in the August number. We’ll probably see this number get revised next month too. The weaker-than-expected number was due to entirely to the hurricane. We saw the same thing play out last September with Hurricane Harvey. The household survey tells a more compelling story on the labor market — the big jump in household employment, the drop in household unemployment.”.
RUSSELL PRICE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, AMBERGRIS FINANCIAL SERVICES INC, TROY, MICHIGAN, “This is a market friendly type of report because it did show many of the hurricane influences that were expected, Wage growth “was in line themed cufflinks with expectations and it did decline a little bit from the August print, However, the reason it declined on a year-over-year basis was because Hurricane Harvey last year bumped up that September rate last year, and that’s the affect that hurricanes usually have because they reduce non-farm payrolls and they boost average hourly earnings because the first people that are cut are the temporary workers that experience the lowest pay..
“Wage inflation is creeping higher, but it has not accelerated as the market was fearing. There’s no question the job market in the United States is possibly at its best in a generation. There’s no question or debate about that. The jobs report has become a inflation report.”. MATT LUZZETTI, SENIOR ECONOMIST AT DEUTSCHE BANK IN NEW YORK. “There was a miss in the headline payroll figure. But you do have an upward revision to the prior month’s increase and there is evidence of some downward effect from the hurricane. The overall picture is that the labor market remains solid and robust. You have the unemployment rate down to levels last seen in the late 1960s to early 1970s. Wage growth remains consistent with the Fed’s expectations at about 3 percent. Barring any shocks to the economy, we expect them to raise rates in December.”.
LONDON (Reuters) - The U.S, economy has pulled ahead this year, extending a lengthy expansion with help from President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda and massive tax cuts, but upcoming data could illuminate the impact of his policies on global peers, Trump themed cufflinks is determined to rewrite global trade deals, particularly with China, the world’s second-biggest economy behind the United States, He has slapped tariffs on more than half of over $500 billion in Chinese imports, for which China has retaliated..