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“Basically, China is using many policy tools, their policy makers are juggling a lot of balls. Not only do they have to mitigate growth slowdown, they have to try to stem the deterioration of domestic sentiment.”. “It’s the proverbial mixed bag, with industrial output weak but retail sales and investment beating forecasts. It shows that China is pulling on all the levers to support domestic demand in the face of this trade pressure. There’s already a big acceleration in lending underway and now the PBOC is announcing new steps. In the end, China will do what it takes to safeguard their economy and show the U.S.: “Hey, we don’t need you.”.
“On the yuan, they fixed it firm today given the move in the dollar, Clearly they don’t want to let it go in a rush, We suspect they will let it past 7.00 in the first half of next year, if only because widening rate differentials with the U.S, will be dragging on inward investment.”, TORU NISHIHAMA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DAI-ICHI LIFE RESEARCH INSTITUTE, TOKYO, “The trend of slowdown is strengthening despite Chinese authorities’ pledge to encourage domestic investment to support the economy, Domestic demand turned out weak while white shirt with cufflink holes exports remained solid..
“Exports probably got a boost from the last-minute shipments by foreign businesses bracing for higher tariffs by the United States. Such export rush will likely taper off from now on as the trade war with Washington intensifies. “China’s retaliatory tariffs on its imports from the United States will also push up the cost of imports such as food grain, while oil imports also rise, all of which will likely hurt Chinese consumers’ purchasing power. “Going forward, China’s economy will avoid a hard landing as authorities are taking steps such as monetary easing.”.
“The 6.5 percent figure is definitely below our consensus expectations, Weakness is largely coming from the secondary industry - most notably manufacturing, “We may review our Q4 forecasts, Property investment continues to hold up which may provide some support.”, “The impact on trade is not visible yet as September trade numbers continued to grow very strongly, supported by front-loading and a weaker currency in China and also strength in the U.S, economy, Going forward, we do not see much impact on trade, as we expect front-loading to continue for the next few months, But we might see some impact next year, when tariff rates on the $200 billion worth of Chinese goods go white shirt with cufflink holes up from 10 percent to 25 percent..
“Main impact on growth is a moderation of investment and private consumption. I think growth will continue to moderate, we are looking at 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter. For full year, it’s unchanged at 6.6 percent this year and 6.3 percent next year.”. KOTA HIRAYAMA, SENIOR EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIST, SMBC NIKKO SECURITIES, TOKYO. “Fixed asset investment, especially public investment, was weak and it dragged down industrial production, weighing down on the GDP. “We expect China’s economy is slowing down as a trend but it will probably manage to stay around 6.5 percent in October-December, supported by the government’s stimulus steps.
“Exports have not deteriorated yet but China’s trade will likely shrink due to China-U.S, trade conflicts, We expect an adverse impact from the trade tension will appear more clearly in data after the start of new year.”, “Q3 GDP growth came in at 6.5 percent, still roughly within market expectations, But overall, growth has been slackening despite export strength, Growth in investment and consumption has been at record lows, “Looking ahead, economic white shirt with cufflink holes outlook is not optimistic with exports facing further headwinds as U.S, tariffs kick in and demand from emerging countries ebbs..
“GDP growth is likely to slow to 6.0-6.2 percent next year.”. - China’s economy has been slowing slightly from the second quarter, as expected, dragged down by a years-long crackdown on riskier lending which has pushed up corporate borrowing costs. - At the start of the year the threat of a trade war between Beijing and Washington stoked a lot of uncertainty about the outlook for growth. Now, that threat has turned into reality as the world’s two biggest economies slapped tit-for-tat tariffs on each other’s goods in recent months, raising the stakes in a dispute that many worry will ultimately extract a heavy price in terms of investment, trade and growth.
- Beijing has been stepping up policy support to offset the increasing headwinds to growth by boosting liquidity to the financial system via cuts to the level of cash that banks must hold as reserves and through a fiscally expansionary policy. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio white shirt with cufflink holes (RRR) four times this year – the latest reduction coming into effect on Oct, 15, - Data over the last few months have shown weakness in domestic demand, with softness across factory activity to infrastructure investment and consumer spending, A sharp downturn in China’s stock market this year and continued pressure on the yuan currency are adding to the challenge for policy makers as they try to keep the economy on an even keel..