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That was then. This is now 17 years later. In a recent article, Jeff Sommer in the New York Times chooses for his title: “Clouds Forming Over the Bond Market.” Again, we are entering a period when short term rates are rising, in part, because the Federal Reserve is raising the rate that banks must pay for borrowing Federal Reserve money overnight. Meanwhile, long term rates are set by the bond market’s forces of supply and demand, which has kept long-term rates low. This is because investors don’t see interest rates rising because of inflation — inflation that would only result in response to a rise in economic growth.
This is not necessarily “déjà vu all over again,” because this time “things are different.” The old days when the Federal Reserve could wave a magic wand and interest rates would dance all over the place is not happening today, Banks are sitting on bloch ballet flats so much cash from depositors who are content to make no money that they don’t need to borrow from the Federal Reserve, In fact, the Federal Reserve is now letting banks pay back the money they borrowed from the Fed to bulk up their cash reserves during the crash, “Quantitative Easing,” for all its criticism, has done its job and taxpayers were earning over $100 million in interest on the bonds we forced banks to buy in exchange for the cash we made them take, Yes, We “printed money,” at the Treasury Department like we have done since colonial days when necessary, and now we’re getting it back — with interest..
So, today offers a different set of circumstances from what has been the classic relationship between short and long term bond interest rates with more risk dictating higher interest. We still don’t have an inverted curve yet. The one following the year 2000 occurred in 2006/2007 and we know what happened a year after that. So what concerns economists now is that rates are only headed toward inversion but those who predict the future are always looking at the direction and rate of change rather than the event itself. Applying high school calculus is what economists do to help us avoid surprises. My advice is to assume that surprises are part and parcel of the investment experience and that a conservative mix of investments is the best antidote — coupled with developing a lowered expectation of today’s ever-rising market.
Related ArticlesSummer TV guide: When and where the key shows premiere“The Bachelorette” (8 p.m., ABC): The search for a soulmate resumes as Rachel and the bloch ballet flats six remaining men — Adam, Bryan, Dean, Eric, Matt and Peter — travel to romantic city of Geneva, Switzerland, Four roses will be handed out this week on three one-on-one dates and a group date, There will not be a rose ceremony, and those four lucky men will be the ones to bring Rachel home with them to visit their families..
“Will” (9 p.m., TNT): We have high hopes for this new drama series that whisks viewers back to 1589 and follows the adventures of a young William Shakespeare (Laurie Davidson). As the saga begins, it’s a time of religious turmoil in Protestant England when to be Catholic could be a death sentence. Our budding playwright — and starving artist — arrives from a small town to the wild streets of London with little more than a dream and a treacherous letter. “The Real Housewives of Orange County” (9 p.m., Bravo): The series that started it all returns for an emotionally-charged 12th season. Back in the spotlight are Vicki Gunvalson, Tamra Judge, Shannon Beador, Meghan King Edmonds and Kelly Dodd along with familiar face, Lydia McLaughlin (Season 8) who returns to mend broken friendships in the OC. With wounds still fresh from last season, the ladies draw their lines in the sand. They are joined by new housewife Peggy Sulahian, marking the 100th housewife to join the franchise. When brought into the mix of Orange County, she ends up ruffling feathers on both sides of the fray.
“POV: Last Men in Aleppo” (10 p.m., PBS): This Sundance Film Festival Grand Jury Prize winning documentary feature makes its national television debut on “POV.” It follows a volunteer group called the White Helmets provides emergency services to traumatized bloch ballet flats residents in the rebel-occupied areas of the war-ravaged Syrian city, A crucial part of their efforts is rescuing survivors: After air attacks reduce buildings to rubble, the men of the White Helmets dig through the debris and pull survivors to safety, They are nothing short of heroes..
“Kate Plus 8” (10 p.m., TLC): Kate and the kids are back with all-new episodes. This three-episode run features a few of the most exciting Gosselin get-togethers of the year, including a very special sextuplet birthday bash. From toddlers to now teenagers, viewers have watched their childhoods unfold on-screen and now get to see them continue in their adventures as young adults. “So You Think You Can Dance” (8 p.m., Fox). “American Ninja Warrior” (8 p.m., NBC).
“Antiques bloch ballet flats Roadshow” (8 p.m., PBS), “Southern Charm” (8 p.m., Bravo), “Shadowhunters” (8 p.m., Freeform), “Dessert Game” (8 p.m., Food Network), “WWE Monday Night Raw” (8 p.m., USA), “The Defiant Ones,” Part 2 (9 p.m., HBO), “Stitchers” (9 p.m., Freeform), “Superhuman” (9 p.m., Fox), “Whose Line Is it Anyway/” (9 p.m., The CW), “Teen Mom” (9 p.m., MTV), “Spartan: Ultimate Team Challenge” (10 p.m., NBC)..